Sports betting vs. the stock market: Which is riskier?

Teresa R. Fabian

Teresa R. Fabian

Bettors often get themselves caught up in their excitement or frustrations. They experience a period of success or failure that ultimately leads them to stray from their proven systems and methods.
Teresa R. Fabian

Related: Apple and 9 other stocks hit new records

Investors also have the ability to spread their money out among many stocks.

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They both believe they can predict the future, and they sometimes fall into the trap of making decisions with their hearts instead of their brains.

Such hedging tools are not as readily or even feasible to sports gamblers, Fine said. It’s easy to see why fans may be tempted to gamble on their favorite teams and athletes.

CNNMoney (New York) First published August 31, 2014: 8:14 AM ET

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SMARTASSET.setSmartAssetScript();. Heck, even his commercials are funny. For example, a stop-loss order instructs a broker to dump a stock when it tumbles below a specific price.

In the long run, investors have the chance to make more money because there are fewer downside risks.

At the same time, investing in stocks actually carries higher upside potential.

“You can hold onto your betting tickets all your life, but you’re not going to get squat,” said Stovall.

“Betting is more difficult and riskier,” said one resident of Hoboken, New Jersey, who bets on illegal gambling sites and also invests in stocks.

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But don’t let those similarities fool you.

However, someone sinking $500 into Apple stock has little risk of losing that entire initial investment, especially in the short term. A bettor gambling on the Green Bay Packers will instantly lose his or her entire $500 bet if Aaron Rodgers and his teammates fail to win or cover the spread.

“A large, steady company has a low chance of plummeting and causing you to lose all your money, but even Peyton Manning doesn’t cover the spread sometimes,” he said.

A stock can theoretically be held onto for an infinite amount of time, but a sports bet can end in the blink of an eye.

The same can’t be said for those who bet big on the Denver Broncos last Super Bowl. And in neither instance can you be guaranteed to be correct,” said Randall Fine, managing director of The Fine Point Group, one of the casino industry’s largest consulting firms.

All or nothing: Gambling on sports tends to be a zero-sum game.

But take it from one person who has lots of experience in both worlds. Gambling on sports may be more fun, but it’s definitely a more risky use of money than putting it in the stock market. The stock might go up and down some, but it typically doesn’t go to zero. He asked for his identity to be withheld due to legal concerns.

“You’re making a wager based on some facts and some intuitions.

And investors have greater access to tools that can minimize the risk of losing money.

Even the unlucky investors who jumped into the market at its peak in October 2007 eventually made their money back when stocks reclaimed their pre-recession levels in 2013.

Those are pretty good odds.

That’s the percentage of time that Stovall’s research shows the S&P 500 — the gold standard in the stock market — has increased in value during the years since 1926.

Related: 4 reasons September could be good for stocks

The betting appeal: Americans bet an estimated $380 billion each year on sports. While many stocks offer steady returns, investors sometimes hit the jackpot (think: buying Apple back in early 2009 or Tesla in 2012). Gambling on football star Peyton Manning to win might seem like a safe bet, especially compared with picking winners in the stock market.

Manning is really, really good at what he does for a living. And of course, they both hate to lose.

To put it another way, the stock market is a lot more forgiving than the MGM Grand (let alone your local sports bookie). Which casino in Atlantic City, Las Vegas or Macau pays the bettor 73% of the time?” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Capital IQ. People often invest in funds that buy dozens or even hundreds of stocks, which helps reduce the risk.

“A lot of people regard investing as gambling, but I frequently say no.

Related: How $2 billion Clippers bet could pay off

Gamblers and investors also have far different time horizons

Ultimate pro football betting guide

Teresa R. Fabian

Teresa R. Fabian

Bettors often get themselves caught up in their excitement or frustrations. They experience a period of success or failure that ultimately leads them to stray from their proven systems and methods.
Teresa R. Fabian

Before last season, Harbaugh owned a 72-38 regular-season NFL record as head coach, plus 10-5 in the postseason. They don’t need to win them all to get over the total and, even if they don’t win them all, I give them a decent shot to win some of the rare games where they’ll be underdogs or pick ‘em.. In addition, they were minus-15 in turnovers and nine of their 11 losses were within eight points as seemingly nothing went right. The loss of Tyrann Mathieu was devastating for this group late last season, as he works himself to 100 percent by this season’s end.

The Giants’ over/under was at 8 with added juice most of the summer, and it was a pass for me. However, after ranking 12th in points per game and sixth in yards per play, expect the league to adjust and regression to occur. They’ve fortified their defensive line with the additions of Chandler Jones and top draft choice Robert Nkemdiche to aid in the all-important NFL pressuring of the quarterback. Well, the oddsmakers obviously felt all along that he would return to the fold as the odds didn’t budge. After Philadelphia traded away Sam Bradford, this number has been raised to 8.5, and I believe that’s an over-adjustment — so I now like the under 8.5 (and ESPN’s Football Power Index and our Money Line Estimate agree as they’re still right around 8 wins). The Jets were 10-6 last year and had the No. But the talent is there to take a flier.

Other potential future-book plays

The season is finally upon us.

Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

Note: I still like the Houston Texans over 8.5 (-120), but not as much as I did when I got over 8 over the summer (though it still takes 9 wins to cash), so that’s why it didn’t make my list of top “over” bets. Nelson is back this season, while the signing of Jared Cook gives Rodgers another weapon.

Buffalo Bills under 8 (-150)

You have to believe that Sam Bradford puts them back on track, and you have to not worry about not pulling the trigger when you could have had 30-1 when Shaun Hill was expected to be the starter.

Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 ( 120)

After Super Bowl 50, the Houston Texans were my choice for best value play out of the AFC at 40-1. So, I actually think now that the value is on the over 8, especially at the current 150 price. The Cardinals are poised and motivated for the NFL title.

Under the leadership of John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens have been a threat every season to reach the Super Bowl. They did lose defensive tackle Kyle Williams early in the season, but a defensive mastermind like Ryan should be capable of working around a key injury.

Atlanta Falcons (80-1)

Green Bay Packers over 10.5 (-170)

Yes, there’s a trend here with finding value on teams with QB issues. We saw how they looked in their 5-0 start last season, when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones looked unstoppable and Devonta Freeman emerged as a scoring machine — and they were the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. Yes, the schedule lightens up after that, but Ryan might have one foot out the door.

Tuley: Teams I love (to bet on) Tuley: Teams I love (to fade) Tuley’s totals: Best over/under teams

Opening week last year, the Ravens lost defensive force and team leader? Terrell Suggs — and quite simply, it was all downhill from there. Besides, the encouraging number is the 12 games that the Bengals are expected to be favored in this year. 4 defense with Fitzpatrick leading an already-balanced offense that adds running back Matt Forte. I don’t believe the Jets can catch the Patriots, but for this bet they just need to finish over .500 again.

If I like the Falcons to go to the playoffs (and especially to make a Super Bowl run), then I must love the over 7 at -130. Note that this offense actually led the league last year in three-and-outs at 28 percent.

Over

New York Giants Chicago Bears New Orleans Saints Arizona Cardinals Pittsburgh Steelers Jacksonville Jaguars

Under

Baltimore Ravens (15-1 to win AFC)

Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (EVEN)

Arizona’s brilliant head coach Bruce Arians continues to preach it’s all about getting that ring on your finger, and his team is as well-rounded as any to deliver the title this season. ESPN Chalk’s NFL Vegas experts, Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning, combine to bring you the ultimate betting guide for 2016. Their offensive line, receivers and quarterback certainly rank in the upper echelon of the NFL. I still like them, but the “value” part isn’t quite there anymore at 14-1. They eventually placed 20 players on injured reserve, including eight projected starters — Suggs, Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Steve Smith included.

AFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl bets

After Super Bowl 50, I made the Falcons my best value bet for Super Bowl LI at 40-1. Forever the extreme eternal optimist, Ryan’s Bills generally failed to deliver last season, especially on the defensive side of the football. They’re still the best value bet on the board in my opinion. Peyton Manning is gone, of course, but if Trevor Siemian can run the offense — which relied more on the running game last year anyway — the defense can carry this team far.

Erin Rynning

I had a lean on the Jets under 8 back in April, but that was when Ryan Fitzpatrick was holding out, and I expected the number to go higher if he signed. In addition, their top draft choice, Shaq Lawson, might be back from injury in November and second-rounder Reggie Ragland is already done for the season.

Minnesota Vikings (20-1)

Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers loomed especially large the first six weeks of last season. The better play now is Cincinnati at 20-1, as the Bengals have one of the best all-around teams with a balanced offense and a solid bend-but-don’t-break defense. The W/L/T that we used in our betting previews for each team and used CG Technology’s Week 1-16 lines to see how many times a team is expected to be favored has the Giants favored in only 8 games, so they would almost have to win all of those (plus any upsets) to get over 8.5.

Dallas Cowboys (25-1)

It’s not often you get 25-1 on the defending champions. Importantly, the key injured cogs from last year are back. Unfortunately, they’ve lost the services of difference-maker Marcell Dareus for the first four games. Ryan is known for his defensive prowess, but the Bills dropped from fourth in yards allowed in 2014 to 19th in 2015. Importantly, the huge emergence of running back David Johnson is the catalyst to take the pressure off the deep passing game. Importantly, the Cardinals can move forward from last year. Secondly, and ultimately the biggest hurdle, is they have to win three playoff games in a row (four if they don’t get a first-round bye), and head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs and 0-4 with Andy Dalton as the starting QB. If you don’t mind giving up the insurance of a push on 7, there are some books that have over 7.5 at plus-money, and even if they don’t live up to my lofty expectations, I don’t think they’ll be worse than a .500 team and get at least the 8 wins needed to cash this bet.

New York Giants under 8.5 (-120)

Again, we don’t need the Bengals to erase their playoff demons to cash this bet. 6 overall draft choice, left tackle Ronnie Stanley. A potential Super Bowl game was promising last season before their collapse in Carolina to end the year after an impeccable 13-3 regular season. However, we’ve clearly seen the high end of this Packers team over the previous two seasons as an offensive machine and a capable defense. And finally, their road schedule is void of high-caliber competition in Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tennessee, Washington, Philadelphia and their division rivals. However, it’s easy to flush last season down the drain and move forward with this rock-solid organization.

Atlanta Falcons over 7 (-130)

Offensively, the Cardinals continue to be sound at all levels. The market hasn’t agreed, as the Falcons drifted all the way up to 100-1 before dipping back to 80-1 over Labor Day weekend. Basically, it comes down to believing we’re much more likely to see 6 wins (and a winning ticket) as opposed to 8.

New York Jets over 8 ( 150)

Dave Tuley

If only the Las Vegas oddsmakers would buy into the promises of Bills coach Rex Ryan. The first 10 games will test the mettle of Ryan & Co. They just need to keep doing what they’re doing in the regular season, and I don’t see too much of a falloff from the team that finished 12-4 a year ago. Obviously we can’t have the Chiefs going on another 10-game winning streak, but that was a bit of a fluke, and no one’s going to be looking past them this year.

Rynning

The question lingers as to whether Rex and his brother Rob Ryan turn this defense around. The FPI at 9.3 and MLE at 9.4 slightly agree, though it is a little concerning that they’re only clear underdogs in just four games (how they fare in the four pick ‘em games will tell the tale). In proper Ryan-like fashion, the Bills also led the NFL in penalties last year. The schedule is tough and front-weighted. with trips to Baltimore, New England, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle and Cincinnati, while garnering the Jets, Arizona and New England at home. If Prescott can keep Dallas in contention and Romo returns healthy, the 25-1 price could be an overlay — as long as Romo can stay healthy the rest of the way, which is asking a lot.

Cincinnati Bengals (20-1)

Denver Broncos (25-1)

New Orleans Saints under 7 (-140)

Vital when handicapping over/under season wins is the schedule, and the Packers’ slate is relatively smooth sailing. ESPN’s Football Power Index has this total pushing with exactly 7 wins, but I like that the Saints are only projected to be favored in six games at CG Technology, plus the Money Line Estimate only adds up to 6.4 wins. Tony Romo got hurt again and the Cowboys’ odds were raised, but there is hope, as he’s projected to miss six to 10 weeks, and rookie Dak Prescott stepped up in the preseason. They added defensive leader Eric Weddle to their defensive backfield, and were able to add the No. Yes, this is a tall win projection, but the Packers are a heavy hitter and the schedule is as soft as a pillow.

I originally had a lean on the Chiefs under 9 back in the spring, so I really like it now that it has been bet up to 9.5 (and 120 to boot!). Look for the Ravens to return to their physical ways with a chance to match any AFC contender. They jumped to 6-0 record before their bye week, outscoring the opposition 164-101. Best future bets, season win total bets, teams to bet on and against — it’s all here in Chalk’s 2016 pro football betting guide. And while defenses can still win championships, like we saw last year with Denver, it’s not a necessity in today’s NFL.

After the schedules came out in April, I made the Saints’ under 6.5 ( 115) one of my best bets, so I like under 7 even better, though the juice is heavy at -140. Head coach Dan Quinn, who built the Seattle Seahawks’ defense before taking this job, obviously still has a lot of work to do with the defense, but that’s why we’re getting such a great price. However, this team peaked early, and eventually the preseason loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson reared its ugly head along with subpar offensive line play. They’ll most likely catch the Cowboys without Tony Romo. The Bears and Lions continue to erode, while the Vikings obviously lose some luster with the loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Of course, there are two big obstacles for the Bengals: First, they really need to hold off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North and secure a first-round bye. Note that with the top AFC teams expected down compared to the Cardinals, Packers, Panthers and Seahawks, the key is to bet the Ravens to win their conference.

Tuley

The Bills did thrive on the offensive side last season, as offensive coordinator Greg Roman did an incredible job with quarterback Tyrod Taylor & Co. Note the Cardinals struggled in both their red zone offense and defense last season, as this team is far too talented for those trends not to turn around

Sports :: How to Win at Betting: Sports Gambling Winning Percentage, What You Need to Know

Teresa R. Fabian

Teresa R. Fabian

Bettors often get themselves caught up in their excitement or frustrations. They experience a period of success or failure that ultimately leads them to stray from their proven systems and methods.
Teresa R. Fabian

At the end of the month, the 55-percent handicapper would have gone 83-67 for a gain of 9.3 units, while the 60-percent handicapper would have gone 18-12 for a profit of 4.8 units, so the 55-percent handicapper has made nearly twice as much.. In the question above, it would be much better to be a 55-percent handicapper if you were playing 150 games a month, as opposed to a 60-percent handicapper playing one game a day. Making it more difficult for sports bettors is that some sports services will claim to have won 200 units in a particular sport, but don’t mention that they release 10- or 20-unit plays, along with several 100-unit “locks” at the end of the year if things aren’t going so well and they need something to base next year’s advertising on.

If somebody were to ask you if you would rather be a 60-percent handicapper or a 55-percent handicapper, which would you choose? The obvious answer is that it’s better to be a 60-percent handicapper, but that isn’t necessarily true.

With baseball season coming back in about 4 months, many sports gamblers will be seeing ads from different sports services claiming winning percentages of 65-percent for baseball, and that’s entirely possibly, but what the services aren’t saying is that the majority of their selections were favorites of -200 or more, turning that 65-percent handicapping into a losing proposition.

For the bettors that do their own handicapping, however, units won is really the only thing you should be concerned with, as that ultimately is going to translate into the bottom line. A winning percentage of 55-percent sure doesn’t sound as sexy as a 60-percent handicapper, but if your volume of plays is high enough, it can certainly be much more profitable.

The 55-percent handicapper is using what is commonly referred to as the Wal-Mart Approach, which is to have a lot of volume with the expectation of grinding out a small profit. And as is the case with the Arkansas-based giant, many times this will be more profitable than being extremely selective and doing a small amount of volume, even if the mark-up is higher.

The only statistic that sports bettors should be concerned with is units won, which is the amount of profit, or loss, they have over time, and not worry nearly as much about winning percentage